The Asia-Pacific region will need 17,620 new passenger and freighter aircraft in the next 20 years, according to a recent report by Airbus, citing expectations of continued demand for travel in the region on the back of accelerated retirement of older less fuel efficient aircraft.
The European planemaker said in the next 20 year passenger traffic growth is seen at 5.3% per annum.
Doubling in air freight
Meanwhile, cargo traffic in Asia-Pacific will also increase at 3.6% per annum, well above the global 3.1% average and will lead to a doubling in air freight in the region by 2040.
Airbus said globally, express freight boosted by e-commerce will grow at an even faster pace of 4.7% per year.
"Overall, reflecting that strong growth over the next 20 years, there will be a need for some 2,440 freighters, of which 880 will be new-build," it added.
Of the 17,600 aircrafts needed in the region, Airbus noted that "nearly 30%" of these will replace older less fuel efficient models.
Airbus noted that APAC is home to 55% of the world's population, thus the expectations of continued growth for passenger travel.
In its report, it said China, India and emerging economies such as Vietnam and Indonesia will be the principal drivers of growth in Asia-Pacific.
"GDP will grow at 3.6% per year compared to the world average 2.5% and double in value by 2040. The middle class, who are the likeliest to travel, will increase by 1.1 billion to 3.2 billion and the propensity for people to travel is set to almost triple by 2040," the planemaker added.
It said of the demand for aircraft, 13,660 are in the Small category like the A220 and A320 Family. In the medium and long range categories, Asia-Pacific will continue to drive demand with some 42% of global requirement — translating to 2,470 Medium and 1,490 Large category aircraft.
Global recovery in air traffic
"We are seeing a global recovery in air traffic and as travel restrictions are further eased the Asia-Pacific region will become one of its main drivers again. We are confident of a strong rebound in the region’s traffic and expect it to reach 2019 levels between 2023 and 2025," said Christian Scherer, Chief Commercial Officer and Head of Airbus International.
"With an ever greater focus on efficiency and sustainable aviation in the region, our products are especially well positioned."
Airbus said its modern portfolio offers a 20%-25 % fuel burn and therewith CO2 advantage over older generation aircraft adding that "all" its aircraft products are already certified to fly with a blend of 50% SAF, set to rise to 100% by 2030.
"In addition, our newly launched A350F offers efficiency gains of 10% to 40% compared to any other large freighter, existing or expected, both in terms of fuel consumption as in CO2 emissions," Airbus added.
Globally, in the next 20 years, there will be a need for some 39,000 new-build passenger and freighter aircraft, of which 15,250 will be for replacement.
Airbus said as a result, by 2040 the vast majority of commercial aircraft in operation will be the latest generation, up from some 13% today, considerably improving the CO2 efficiency of the world's commercial aircraft fleets.
The global aviation industry has already achieved "huge efficiency gains," as shown by the 53% decline in aviation's CO2 emissions per revenue passenger kilometre since 1990, Airbus added.
"In view of further ongoing innovations, product developments, operational improvements as well as market based options, Airbus has a clear ambition to achieve the air transport sector's target to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050," the planemaker added.
